September 2024 Jobs Report: Is A Hot Labor Market Returning?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the September 2024 Employment Situation Summary, painting a somewhat positive picture of the U.S. job market. Job growth exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate ticked down slightly, and long-term unemployment seeming to be showing positive signs.

Key Takeaways from the Household Survey: 

• Unemployment Rate Edges Up: The unemployment rate dipped slightly to 4.1 percent, with 6.8 million people unemployed. However, this is up from 3.8 percent a year ago.
• Labor Force Participation Holds Steady: The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.7 percent, indicating a continued willingness to work among the population.
• Part-Time for Economic Reasons: The number of people working part-time for economic reasons (meaning they want full-time work but can't find it) remained high at 4.6 million.

Key Takeaways from the Establishment Survey:

• Strong Job Growth: Nonfarm payroll employment increased by a robust 254,000 jobs, exceeding expectations and the average monthly gain over the past year.
• Industry Gains: Notable job gains occurred in food services, health care, government, social assistance, and construction.
• Wage Growth Continues: Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.4 percent to $35.36.

Analysis:

The September jobs report shows that The Fed, which is recommitting to its dual mandate, will take notice of a strong labor market. Beating expectations by over 100,000 jobs, the U.S. labor market shows signs of strengthening and with rate cuts being made, coupled with more rate cuts on the horizon, we expect this trend to continue. 

Looking Ahead:

As previously said, The Federal Reserve will likely be closely monitoring these figures as it considers its next steps on interest rates. The combination of solid job growth and rising wages could influence their decisions in the coming months.